Chris Lang's Web Log
2008-09-30 2300: I've added some Accidental Art and Deliberate Art to my website.
2008-09-30 1630: The day after the largest point drop in the history of the DJIA, this average today posted its third largest point increase in history: Up 485.21 points. The largest point gains were 499.19 on March 16 of 2000, and 488.95 on July 24 of 2002. However, the percent gain was 4.68%, which is not in the top 20 percent gains in history. The four largest percent gains occurred in the 1929-1932 era; the fifth, which was 10.15%, occurred on October 21 of 1987 (two days after the historic percent drop that happened that year).
2008-09-30 1300: A tiny but positive real estate market indicator close to home: One of the ten houses for sale in my neighborhood just sold.
2008-09-30 1045: The Case-Shiller Indices for July 2008 have been published (S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices). The Indices expresses house prices in 20 cities as a percentage of the prices in January 2000, when the index for each city was 100. The composite index is just a weighted average. The Standard and Poors website has full technical details as to how these are compiled. These are actually three-month moving averages published with a two month delay (so the July 2008 figures reflect data from July, June and May). They only look at resales of single-family houses (no condos, no new construction); this is considered the most reliable method of assessing values of real estate.
You can download spreadsheets and play with the numbers yourself. I imported certain data into the statistical software R, and drew the graph shown here. This served as a good excuse to learn a few finer points of graphics using the software. I'm from the Northwest, so I was curious about how Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington were doing. (They're down about 6.6% and 8.2% from their recent highs; the composite for all 20 cities is down 19.5%.) Unfortunately, the Indices do not include Louisville, Kentucky, so I don't know how things are going over here.
Here are the actual commands for R used to produce this graph. (R lets you export graphs as JPEG images.) Here, it is assumed that the vectors x, y and z hold the relevant data. These were read into R by copying and pasting data from the spreadsheet and using the scan() function in R.
> plot(x=c(0,34),y=c(150,210),xlab="Months Since Oct 2005",ylab="Case Shiller Index")
> lines(x,col="blue")
> lines(y,col="green")
> lines(z,col="red")
> legend(15,160,c("Portland","Seattle","Composite"),lty=c(1,1,1),col=c("blue","green","red"))
R, by the way, is a remarkable piece of software. It is becoming the standard software used in statistical research. It is a complete programming language, designed for handling data. It is not difficult to use but it is extremely powerful. It is also an open-source software project, so it is completely free. See http://www.r-project.org/ to learn more and obtain the software. I have some more information on using the software available at my website at IU Southeast, for the statistics course I taught Spring of 2008. But the best thing to do to learn R is to buy a book on the language. The one I found most helpful is Using R for Introductory Statistics by John Verzani (Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2005).
I can't resist mentioning that if you search on Google for 'R' (just the letter of the alphabet), you will be told that there were about 2,650,000,000 results, but the first six results will be to this software.
2008-09-29 1700: Today's drop in the markets was precipitated by the failure of HR 3997, the "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008" (the title given in the draft, as linked to in the NY Times). My congressman, Rep. Baron Hill, who represents the 9th congressional district of Indiana (which includes New Albany, Indiana), voted 'No' on the bill, as did Rep. John Yarmuth, who represents the 3rd congressional district of Kentucky (which includes Louisville, Kentucky). Both of these congressmen are Democrats.
The NY Times is already calling today the "Black Monday of 2008," in an article by Michael M. Grynbaum titled "For Stocks, Worst Single-Day Drop in Two Decades." (Go to http://www.nytimes.com/ and follow the link with that title.) While the DJIA drop of nearly 7% is not as high as single-day percents drops that occurred in 1997 and 2001, the broader markets today dropped about even further: the NASDAQ dropped 9.14% and the S&P500 dropped 8.77%.
2008-09-29 1630: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just closed down 777.68 points. This is the largest point drop in history; the previous record point drop was on September 17, 2001 when it dropped 684.81 points. However, today's drop was not close to the worst percent drops: 24.39%, which happened on December 12, 1914; or 22.61%, which happened on October 19, 1987. Today's drop was 6.98%. This happens to be the 18th worst percent drop in history. (The historical figures are available from the Dow Jones website, Dow Jones Indices; select 'Dow Jones Averages' on the menu on the left, then select the link 'Highlights/Lowlights of the Dow' near the bottom for a spreadsheet with these figures.)
2008-09-23 2100: Someone in Oregon was frustrated after their Obama sign was stolen for the third time. So they set up a web cam so that the thief could be caught; anyone can watch and help maintain the vigil: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/obama-sign-cctv-1. If you're patient, something interesting might happen, such as a car going by. (I found this link on the Angry Bear blog. I became acquainted with Angry Bear after it was mentioned on Andrew Sullivan's website. Sullivan had a link to an earlier post post on Angry Bear, a charming mock Nigerian scam letter from "Minister of Treasury Paulsen.")
2008-09-23 2030: As I mentioned earlier, I read Oryx and Crake, by Margaret Atwood, while my power was out. I can report that the novel was interesting; it held my attention and the characters affected me emotionally. Atwood has a powerful imagination. I'm not certain if the novel breaks any new ground as science fiction; cautionary tales about science or technology are of course a standard genre in science fiction, and as the novel functions as a commentary on contemporary culture, it cannot depart too far from the familiar. But it was worth reading, if not as good as Atwood's famous novel Handmaiden's Tale.
2008-09-18 2100: I am very happy to report that my power has been restored. It was on when I came home this evening at about 8:45 pm, but the clock in my stove said 1:56, from which I infer that my power came on at about 6:50 pm. My power failed at about 12:50 on Sunday, so it was out for about 102 hours. I am glad also to find that my internet service is available as well. Not having power is a frustrating experience, but I am grateful for what must be an extraordinary effort by the power company (Duke Energy) to restore service in Southern Indiana.
2008-09-16 2200: September 17, 2008 is the 100th anniversary of the first fatality in aviation. On September 17, 1908, Orville Wright crashed a Wright Flyer with Lieutenant Thomas E. Selfridge as passenger; Selfridge died of his injuries. MSNBC uses this anniversary to frame a story about the extraordinary safety record of the modern airline industry. Or as I like to put it, air travel is the safest and least comfortable way of traveling.
2008-09-16 1600: I was broken-hearted yesterday to learn that Richard Wright passed away. He was a founding member and keyboardist for Pink Floyd. Pink Floyd has always been one of my favorite bands, and Wright wrote some of my favorite songs for the band. One of these is the now sadly ironic "The Great Gig in the Sky" (on the album Dark Side of the Moon).
2008-09-15 1900: As of early this evening, I still didn't have power, and there is no indication as to when it will be restored. Near my house there is a commercial district that had no power yesterday evening, but some of that district did have power today. So they are making progress. (Actually, of the 30,000 customers in my county, Floyd County, who originally lost power, about 12,000 still do not have power, according to the Duke Energy current outages webpage.)
Something I didn't notice yesterday: The copper roofing on my building on campus, Life Sciences, was torn off the western end of the building. Also, two colleagues of mine told me that they had damage to their houses.
An acquaintance suggests that God is punishing New Albany for failing to enact a smoking ban.
2008-09-14 2145: We've had a serious natural disaster here in southern Indiana today: sustained high winds from the remnant of Hurricane Ike that have caused widespread power outages. There are 300,000 people without power in the Louisville, Kentucky metro area, and the utilities are saying they might not have power restored for several days. It's the worst power outage in 30 years, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal. The winds lasted for four or five hours, with sustained winds of 40 mph and gusts of 75 mph (65 and 120 kph).
The storm, which involved little precipitation, began in the late morning. I attended our church picnic, held in a nearby city park. The service was simple and pleasant (two violinists accompanied the congregation as we sang Morning Has Broken and Simple Gifts, the latter as a round between the men and the women). But the wind grew stronger as the worship ended and we ate our picnic lunch. (I was pleased that my Joy of Cooking recipe "Brownies Cockaigne" were all eaten, but they didn't compare with the couscous with pine nuts and dried cranberries that another parishioner brought. He fished for a complement when he saw me eating it, but my praise was entirely unfeigned.) The picnic came to a somewhat premature end as the wind grew much stronger. I drove home and watched a little football before the power cut off. The wind was very impressive. The dead tree in my neighbor's yard behind me came down (I thought that the woodpeckers would regret this), as did a large limb from another tree. I started the Margaret Atwood novel Oryx and Crake. A sad novel that to me comes across as more surrealistic than parodic; reading a dystopian novel about the collapse of civilization during a massive power outage seems appropriate somehow. (This is one of the readings this year for Indiana University Southeast's Common Experience.)
Later in the afternoon, when it became clear the power wasn't going to come on quickly, I drove around partly to get needed supplies (cans of beef stew and batteries), and to see what was going on. There were numerous downed trees and several downed power lines; driving around was tricky because various streets were blocked off. I saw a few roofs that had lost shingles (although none of the houses in my neighborhood seemed to have any damage. I also saw a chimney or two that had been damaged. The Courier-Journal reported that 1,100 power lines had come down in Jefferson County, Kentucky (this is Louisville's county).
Fortunately, there is power at Indiana University Southeast, so I can at least get on the internet. And I will be able to get some work done on my sabbatical projects.
2008-09-13 1200: This morning, I ran in the Lanesville (Indiana) Heritage Festival 8 mile race. I finished in 73 minutes, which is one minute slower than my time last year. I had hoped to do better, but it was warm and humid at race time while last year, it was cool and dry. The race course is hilly and very pretty: corn fields, cows and horses, and woods. One nice thing about the course is that the hill-climbing is in the first half of the race, and it finishes downhill, so you finish fast. This was the third time I've run this race.
2008-09-09 1000: I've finished an extremely interesting book by Stephen Dubner, Choosing My Religion (originally published as Turbulent Souls). This is a personal memoir by the coauthor of Freakanomics, who describes his Roman Catholic childhood in rural New York state. But his parents were both Jewish before they converted to Catholicism after WWII as adults (they met after their conversions), and Dubner traces their Jewish past and meets Jewish relatives he knew little about. As he learns about his family's past, and he learns about Judaism, he begins to be drawn towards that religion and culture. But he knows that a decision to become a Jew might estrange him from his mother—just as his own parents were estranged from their families when they converted to Catholicism.
2008-09-09 0945: According to a study by the American Lung Association, reported on MSNBC.com, 1 in 5 college students smoke. They also report that the tobacco industry spends $1 million per day on promotions targetting college students. Lung Association recommendations include making colleges entirely smoke-free, including student housing. This prompted me to check the IU Southeast policy for smoking in its brand-new student housing. Like the entire campus, they are smoke-free. I was glad to learn that our housing is smoke-free—I read this morning in an article in the New York Times that men who smoke have a 1 in 5 chance of dying of lung cancer (the figure for women who smoke is 1 in 8). (See "A Look at Nonsmokers Who Get Lung Cancer," by Denise Grady, in the September 8 New York Times. Follow links in their Science section online to find the article. This article reports on a large study that appeared in PLoS Medicine.)
2008-09-09 0930: An interesting anniversary this week: The first concert by Led Zeppelin was 40 years ago, on September 7, 1968, in Gladsaxe, Dennmark. Jimmy Page, Robert Plant, John Paul Jones and John Bonham played under the name The New Yardbirds (they played under the name Led Zeppelin for the first time on October 25, 1968).
2008-09-06 1700: Sen. Obama's performance in his acceptance speech, and his choice for a running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, have gone a long way towards reassuring me that he would be a successful president if he were elected. I was planning to vote for him in any event. But I am a lot more positive about Obama after the conventions.
Sen. McCain, on the other hand, impresses me a lot less after the conventions. His choice of Gov. Palin signals a decision to go after Bush's conservative evangelical base, and a decision to run a campaign based on cultural issues. I am alienated by this because I am on the other side of the cultural divide they appear to be trying to exploit. Palin's use of the name "San Francisco" as a code word in her acceptance speech is an example of these campaign tactics. McCain's choice of Palin served a particular political purpose but disregards her lack of preparation for national office. I think this reflects poorly on him.
2008-09-04 1530: I am sorry that Mayor Doug England (New Albany, Indiana) vetoed the smoking ban. I think the smoking ban would have been good because the science is strong that environmental tobacco smoke is unhealthy and is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, and because smoking bans encourage smokers to quit smoking. I should mention one very personal reason I support smoking bans (as well as other efforts towards smoking prevention and cessation): my father died of lung cancer. (He was a former heavy smoker; about one third of all lung cancers happen in former smokers.)
2008-09-04 1500: I deleted the previous posting, which concerned the smoking ban issue, because I decided it was too personal in tone.
2008-09-03 2300: [Deleted by author.]