Chris Lang's Web Log
2008-10-29 1230: I voted this morning. I went to the City/County building, to the Voter Registration office. There were maybe 10 people in line ahead of me, and I had to wait 10 or 15 minutes. The lady who took my ballot told me that they were having 300 early voters a day; she said it was as busy as when I was there, all day long. There was a lady in line to vote who said that Harrison County had already had 30% of their registered voters vote early—they usually only get 40% turnout for the entire election.
Folks who know me won't be surprised to hear that I voted for Obama/Biden. In fact, I voted the straight Democratic ticket. I considered voting for one particular Republican for a local office, because I thought he looked like a decent candidate on his website. He said he was a member of the math club when he was in college—can't fault that! Unfortunately, on a local blog this morning, he was repeating the Republican canard that Obama is a socialist. So I couldn't vote for him.
I might perhaps summarize my reasons for voting for Barack Obama. The primary reason is that he is a Democrat. He appears to support traditional Democratic positions favoring working people and the middle class: he is pro-union, he wants to keep jobs in this country, he opposes lowering capital gains taxes in favor of lowering taxes on the middle class, and his health care proposal is more credible than his opponent's plan. Obama isn't as liberal as I would like him to be on social issues; he opposes same-sex marriage although he is generally supportive of GLBT issues. On foreign policy, I see no reason to believe that he won't be careful and deliberate in his approach. I think a President Obama would have prosecuted the war in Afghanistan more competently than President Bush did in the fall of 2001; and I doubt Obama would have made the mistake of going into Iraq (he was of course against that war from the beginning).
Early in the summer, I was glad McCain became the Republican nominee. I thought of him as independent and intelligent. Unfortunately, the direction his campaign took thereafter has soured me on him completely. I am particularly disturbed by his choice of Gov. Palin as his running mate. That decision was reportedly taken with little deliberation, and they did essentially no vetting of her. McCain's choice of a running mate for political purposes, with so little regard to her fitness for office, demonstrates his poor judgment. And the unpleasant tone of his campaign (its reliance on smears and exploitation of cultural issues) has completely alienated me.
2008-10-25 1900: I ran in the "Home Run," in the Bernheim Arboretum south of Louisville. This race is in support of the Home of the Innocents, which provides services to special-needs children. This is a five mile run held every year in the last week of October. The fall colors were muted this year (I think because it's been fairly warm and dry this fall). But it was still very pretty, and the weather was good (sunny and in the low 50's). I didn't run as fast as last year (I ran 42:10 last year but this year I think my gun time was 43:15).
My running group followed its tradition of stopping for breakfast afterwards at the Cracker Barrel south of Louisville. We tried to keep our voices down when we talked about politics, because we were sure we were surrounded by McCain/Palin supporters. Cracker Barrel does have healthy things on its menu, but of course we opted for the usual sausage, eggs, and pancake breakfasts.
2008-10-23 1430: I was delighted to find out yesterday evening that two of my favorite early 1980s rock bands are back in print: Rain Parade and True West. These bands were part of the "Paisley Underground" along with other bands like The Three O'Clock. Neither Rain Parade or True West signed with a major label (although True West got written up in Rolling Stone magazine, and came close to signing with major labels). Rain Parade had a dreamy psychedelic pop sound. True West was a guitar band (no keyboards) best known circa 1983 for a cover of the Syd Barrett Pink Floyd tune "Lucifer Sam." It seems True West had limited success in an era lean on lead guitar sounds. But I suspect they were ten years ahead of their time, because to my ears, they compared in sound and quality to the leading grunge bands of the early 1990s.
I saw True West in concert in about 1983 or 1984, at the University of Oregon. They played in the ball room early one Friday evening. There were only a few dozen people there, which I thought was sad because True West put on a terrific performance. They played a blistering cover of an old Yard Birds song "Happenings Ten Years Time Ago."
It turns out True West recently reunited, and they've performed a few shows. I hope I get a chance to see them again. They have a website: http://www.truewestreunion.com/.
2008-10-20 1230: More about the planetarium projector McCain brought up in the last two presidential debates. It turns out the $3 million dollar projector was never funded; Adler is still using their 1970 Zeiss Mark VI projector. It also turns out federal government contributed to recent upgrades of major planetarium theaters (the Griffith Observatory in Los Angles, and the Hayden Planetarium in NYC). See McCain's Planetarium Problem.
2008-10-18 1900: ScienceNOW Daily News has a peculiar and interesting article about something I'd never heard of before: worm grunting. This is a technique for obtaining earthworms for fish bait. If you stick a piece of wood into the ground, and produce a grunting noise by rubbing the wood with a piece of steel called a rooping iron, burrowing earthworms immediately surface. According to the article, scientists have verified that this works, and they have discovered why it works: Worm grunting produces frequencies in the 100 Hz range, which is in the range of the sound frequencies produced by moles. Moles can eat their body weight in worms every day, but they do not go to the surface. So if worms head to the surface, they can escape moles. (The article is by Chad Boutin, and it reports on research by Jayne Yack of Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, and biologist Kenneth Catania of Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee. That article is behind a pay wall, but Google turned up a NY Times article from October 17 that includes a video clip of worm grunting: Worm Grunting: A Mystery Solved.)
2008-10-16 1530: I was very privileged yesterday to attend the dedicatory ceremony at IU Southeast for our new student housing. This was on the lawn, under a pavilion, in front of the attractive new Lodges being dedicated. The ceremony included live chamber music, and several fine speeches of gratitude and congratulations by the dignitaries who worked to make the housing possible. Our state representative, Bill Cochran, got a good laugh by mentioning how student housing has already changed the atmosphere at IU Southeast: there have been more arrests for alcohol on campus this year. Our Vice-Chancellor for Student Affairs, Ruth Garvey-Nix, provided us with the charming news that the students who live on campus have come up with mascots and mottos for the five Lodges they live in. It never occurred to us, circa 1980, at Reed College to do this. (We did have nicknames for some of our dorms, such as the "Asylum Block.") But I suppose our students are in that generation who grew up on Harry Potter.
2008-10-16 1700: A thought about last night's debate. John McCain was careful to avoid saying "my friends" so often. But he did use the word "planetarium" again. In fact, he referred to the "overhead projector" again. Of course, speaking as someone who once worked in a planetarium, the machine in question is not called an "overhead projector." It is called a star projector or a planetarium projector. The inaccurate term "overhead projector" brings to mind the simple equipment used in classrooms to project transparencies. But planetarium projectors are sophisticated and complex machines that can show the night sky as it appears from anywhere on Earth at any year, date or time; a good planetarium projector can produce a beautifully realistic night sky that captivates an audience. So this prompts a reasonable question: Why does John McCain repeatedly refer to the projector as an overhead projector? Two possibilities come to mind: He doesn't know anything about planetariums, or it's a deliberate usage intended to belittle Sen. Obama's earmark expenditure that paid for it.
It wouldn't surprise me if McCain doesn't know what he's talking about here; I'm not sure what fraction of the public has been to a planetarium. But it's depressing how ignorant about astronomy and science the public is. One example: Yesterday, CNN ran an article from the CareerBuilders.com website about what your astrological zodiac sign says about your career. This was presented without irony, as if the writer and editors took it at face value.
If McCain's use of the term "overhead projector" was deliberate, it doesn't reflect well on him; partly because it would be a subtle effort to deceive his audience, and it disrespects science education (we need all the high-quality science education we can get).
2008-10-13 1630: After eight days of declines, the DJIA posted a record point gain of 936 points or 11%. But this is the fifth biggest percent gain in history. The largest record percent gains occurred in the 1929-1933 period, which might prompt us to disregard what happened today (I understand the phrase "dead cat bounce" originated in the Depression era). However, the 1987 crash was immediately followed by a historic 10.15% gain, and it wasn't long before a historic bull market began.
Over the weekend, the Princeton University economist and NY Times columnist Paul Krugman warned that a failure by world leaders to arrive at a credible plan to protect the markets could lead to a disastrous Monday. In his column of October 12, he praised British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and other leaders, whose actions may have saved the world financial system. Coincidentally, Krugman was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics this morning. (See his NY Times blog for his charming reaction to this news.)
2008-10-09 1615: Another ghastly day on Wall Street—the DJIA closed down 678 points, or 7.3%, for the day. Most of this drop (400 points) occurred in the last hour of trading. The DJIA is now at 8579.19, and it has dropped over 2000 points in seven trading sessions. The DJIA has lost 39.4% of its value from its all-time high of 14,164.53, which occurred exactly one year ago to the day.
I wonder how much of what's going on now is rational, and how much of what's going on is simple panic. CNN reports that something called the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a "key measure of investor fear," reached an all-time high of 60. I've never heard of this ominous statistic before. The CBOE website informs me that CBOE stands for Chicago Board Options Exchange, and the VIX is computed from S&P500 stock index option prices.
At this point, I am tempted to mention an interesting word I learned last week: Gadarene. The columnist George Will used this word last week to characterize the Senate's rush to approve the $700 billion bailout plan. I was curious enough to look the word up. It means 'precipitate' or 'head-long,' but the etymology is charming: the word refers to the Gospel story found in Mark chapter 5 or Luke chapter 8, where Jesus encounters a demon-possessed man in the region of the Gadarenes (or Gasarenes, in some manuscripts). The story is familiar: Jesus addresses the demon and asks it its name, and the demon answers "Legion, for we are many." The demons beg Jesus not to send them into the Abyss, and Jesus allows them to enter a herd of swine, which then rush down the steep bank into the lake and drown. Thus the vivid image carried by the word Gadarene: the head-long plunge of a demon-possessed herd of swine.
2008-10-08 0845: In yesterday's presidential debate, John McCain said "my friends" 19 times, by my count. But he also used a word that I would never have expected to be used in a presidential debate: planetarium. This occurs about 19 minutes into the debate, when he criticizes Barack Obama's spending record:
| He voted for nearly a billion dollars in pork barrel earmark projects, including, by the way, $3 million for an overhead projector at a planetarium in Chicago, Illinois. My friends, do we need to spend that kind of money? |
Now I won't defend the system of federal earmarks, but I do find it disappointing that McCain would choose as an example of pork barrel spending $3 million for a planetarium projector. Consider what the purpose of a planetarium is: public education about science. It is a little troubling that McCain would criticize science education, given the deep ignorance and mistrust about science in much of the public. Even if a visit to a planetarium imparts little specific learning or understanding of science, 45 minutes in a good planetarium can create an excitement or interest in science—especially among children. I know this from my own experience. The planetarium this money was spent on was the Adler Planetarium, whose 40-year-old star projector needed replacing (parts for repairs were no longer available). This is one of the premier planetarium theaters in the country. Who knows how many children have learned about the night sky, or become excited about science, in that theater?
2008-10-07 1600: Another ugly day on Wall Street (the DJIA down 5.11%) prompts me to comment on the economy.
There is of course an enormous amount of anger, much of it directed towards the investment bankers whose greed and poor judgment led to the cascading failures of investment banks and the huge bailouts. Certainly, they bear much of the blame. But I've also heard expressions of anger towards the millions of home-buyers whose poor judgment led them to take out mortgages whose terms they did not understand, or which were simply too big for them to afford; they too share much of the blame (but it must be said that many of these home-buyers were the victim of predatory lenders who engaged in deceptive practices).
However, I believe that to a large extent, what has happened is something akin to a natural disaster, fueled by human psychology. My own personal experiences in the housing boom might illustrate what happened.
I live in New Albany, Indiana. This is one of those communities that never saw the rapid run-up in housing prices that many cities experienced between 2000 and 2007. As it happens, I bought a house in New Albany, a small brick ranch, in 1999. It appreciated 15% between 1999 and 2007. Meanwhile, in Portland, Oregon, house prices appreciated about 80% in the same period. Homes that sold for $175,000 in 2000 were now selling for $315,000. In Seattle, homes appreciated 90% in the same time frame. Now, I am still rather homesick for the Northwest. Last year, it suddenly occurred to me that if I did not buy property in Portland, it might become completely impossible for me to buy a house there—I feared that Portland was becoming, if not a new San Francisco, a new Seattle. Property was appreciating 15% per year. A typical suburban house in Seattle was more than half a million dollars last year. On the salary I earn now, it would be impossible to afford that kind of a house. So, I gave serious thought to quitting my career as a mathematics professor here in Indiana, to pursue a career in software, or statistics, in the Northwest.
I then decided perhaps I wouldn't move back west, but I would see if I could afford to buy a small condo there. Portland has had a great deal of condominium development in the last few years; stylish and expensive condos in the Pearl District and in the Northwest neighborhood, and relatively inexpensive apartment conversions in the suburbs. Prices seemed to be in the $140-160 thousand range for one bedroom condos. I thought, if I throttle back my expenses in New Albany, I could just manage the debt load (knowing how much banks were allowing people to carry at the time). I looked at a few condos with an agent in Portland. This was in June of last year.
I then made a critical decision: I would sell my house. I thought perhaps I would move west, or else I would attempt to buy a condo (and rent an inexpensive apartment in New Albany to afford it), or failing that, at least buy a nicer place in Indiana or Kentucky. So I prepared my house for the market (doing a couple of needed repairs), and put it on the market at the beginning September.
I had no time for seller's remorse, as my house sold in less than a week. (This was the occasion of some resentment towards my agent, who I suspected of under-pricing my house; but I think it's more likely I had a bit of luck. That weekend brought out a lot of buyers, as the weather had been very hot but Labor Day weekend was fresh and cool.)
I then moved into a inexpensive but reasonably nice apartment, to decide what to do.
It was then I began to realize that the housing market had gone through a tremendous bubble that was now beginning to break. Right after I sold my house, the foreclosure crisis began to dominate the news, and housing prices began to crash. Housing prices in Portland seemed to be holding their own, but a friend in Portland who worked in a title company told me that there were a lot of houses in foreclosure that banks were keeping off of the market (to keep prices up). She thought things would soon get ugly in Portland.
The real estate market did begin to deteriorate in Portland. The inventory went from 4 months supply to 11 or 12 months of supply (a strong buyer's market), many new condo developments were being converted to rental apartments, and finally, the Case-Shiller index showed a 6% dip in house prices. Whether this will continue, who can predict; but it seems unwise to assume the days of 15% annual appreciation will soon return.
So I decided to hold off on moving to Portland, or buying property there. In the meantime, I realized I did regret "losing" my house in New Albany. Not that I missed the place, which I thought of as mediocre in some ways. But psychologically, that's what it felt like—my house was taken away from me. It then occurred to me that if I tried to move out west, I would have to leave my academic career—and I would certainly deeply regret that. I am deeply invested emotionally and personally in my career as a college professor, and I knew I could not give that up. (It would, unfortunately, be very difficult to find a tenure-track academic position out west. Such positions are in short supply and very competitive; the academic job market is competitive anywhere you go, but especially out west.)
So I decided to shop for a place in Louisville or New Albany. I looked at nice new condo developments in the nicer parts of Louisville. But I decided against that, because the price per square foot seemed pretty high ($200+ in new construction), and because by spring of this year, it became evident that new condos were not selling especially well. Buildings were still less than half bought. That would be risky.
I also decided that stretching myself financially to live in what in the final analysis would merely be a two-bedroom apartment was not a good plan. I had dreams of living in a house, like the one I grew up in, with an actual lawn around me. I missed that in my old place.
So, I bought a house in New Albany. My new house is not far from my last house, and about as far away from campus (about 1.6 miles). Now I wonder what the housing market will do here, or in Portland; but in the end, I am grateful that I own a nice house, and my mortgage is very affordable. I am especially grateful to be in education; it is very unlikely I would lose my job (I hope).
Now I watch the news, and I feel dreadful to imagine what people have gone through or are going through. Some people sold modest homes and bought fantastic dream houses they could not afford. But I am sure that there are a lot of people who bought a house because they were afraid that if they waited any longer, they would no longer be able to afford to buy a house. And I am sure that many of the people who had to make this decision, who wanted nothing more than to own a house similar to what their parents owned (a quarter-acre lot, a 3 bedroom brick ranch), couldn't afford it, or are losing their property to foreclosure. That must be a terrible experience. Many of these people can't be blamed. They were the victims of the same psychological pressure I felt—fear of not being able to go home, fear of not having a home. When the banks and the government decided to lower interest rates and make available subprime mortgages and jumbo mortgages, this fueled the housing bubble, by allowing people to buy houses beyond the level they could afford. We can fault the judgment of the people who bought those mortgages, but once home prices zoomed upwards, this intensified the psychological pressure. I can't blame the people who got caught up in this.
I note, by the way, that when I was looking at condos in Portland (June of last year), the market there was just about at its peak, which Case-Shiller records as July of 2007. There but for the grace of God go I!